Crises are moments of inflection that challenge our understanding of the future. The prism of our daily lives blurs the line between the past and the present, making most changes imperceptible. A crisis, however, is a sudden shock that causes us to re-evaluate our expectations of the future and reshapes the way we think.

This year marked the centennial of the World War I Christmas Truce, when British and German soldiers crossed the trenches and exchanged Christmas greetings. It is a symbolic gesture that lives on because WWI was one of the most violent wars in human history. The intensity of the fighting shocked not only the soldiers, but also the military commanders of the era as well. In 1914, the strategy of war had not kept pace with technological changes in warfare. The textbook shock tactic officers learned in military academy was a full-frontal cavalry charge, which was...

For years, FICC (Fixed Income, Currencies and Commodities) has been a key profit driver for banks. It’s an $80bn/year industry that has topped out. The financial press has pointed to many different causes for sluggish FICC revenues: low volatility, low rates, low volumes. These causes all factor into the equation, but the way banks make money trading is also changing. Increasingly, market-making relies on pricing models and technology instead of human judgement. This has made trading substantially more competitive.

Bank = Merchant

Imagine walking into the grand bazaar in Istanbul. Each merchant in the bazaar has his own stall with various goods, but there’s a degree of overlap between the goods offered in each stall, and the merchants all know each other fairly well. When you step into a stall, you are entering into a protracted negotiation with a merchant, whether you realize...